IPL 2023: All playoffs probabilities in 9 points
Lucknow Super Giants‘ win against the Mumbai Indians on Tuesday has opened up the playoffs race even more. But we now know that the defending champions, the Gujarat Titans will be the sole leader at the end of the league stage.
With 7 matches left to play in the league stage of IPL 2023, there are now 128 possible combinations of results. TOI looks at each of these possibilities to calculate the chances of individual teams making it to the playoffs. As things stand, one team is sure of finishing first, two others are almost certain to make the play-offs, a fourth one is a strong favourite to do so. Among the rest, two have been eliminated, two others have slim chances and two have a reasonable shot at their immediate target.
TOI’s Shankar Raghuraman does the number crunching to determine how the teams stand as of Wednesday, May 17 morning, in 9 points:
1. GT are now guaranteed to finish in top spot following Tuesday’s result in the MI-LSG game. No other team can now match their tally of 18 points.
2.CSK are also almost certain of making it to the top four on points with their chances of finishing in that bracket either singly or jointly now at 93%.
3. Having leapfrogged MI to third spot with Tuesday’s win, LSG now also have a 93% chance of making the top four. Once again that includes scenarios in which they are only joint fourth.
4. MI have dropped to fourth place after Tuesday’s loss, but their chances of making the top four on points are still at a healthy 78.1%, though that includes scenarios where they’re tied for the fourth spot.
5.RCB are in fifth place and their chances of finishing in the top four remain at 43.8% though this includes situations of teams tied on points for the last spot.
6. Currently in sixth place, RR‘s chances of making the top four remain at 18.8%. They can do no better than tied fourth, and that’s if they win their remaining game and other results fall in place.
7.KKR, now in seventh place, can also not finish better than tied fourth with between two and four other teams. And their chances of achieving even that are a lowly 14.1%.
8. PBKS are in eighth place, but an extra game in hand means their chances of finishing in the top four on points are, at 43.8%, much better than RR’s or KKR’s and equal to fifth-placed RCB’s.
9. Ninth-placed SRH and DC in last spot are already out of the play-offs, with their best possible placing being sixth.
How we calculate these probabilities:
We looked at all 128 possible combinations of results with 7 matches remaining. We assumed that for any given match the chances of either side winning are even. We then looked at how many of the combinations put each team in one of the top four slots by points. That gives us our probability number. To take a specific example, of the 128 possible result combinations, GT finishes in the sole top slot in all 128. That translates to a 100% chance (read guarantee) of being the sole leader at the end of the league stage. We do not take net run rates or No Results (NR) into consideration because predicting those in advance is impossible.