IPL playoffs race: One team out, 9 others vying for 4 spots

Delhi Capitals‘ loss to Punjab Kings on Sunday has now officially ruled them out of the playoffs race. They have become the first team to be knocked out. All the other 9 teams are mathematically still in contention for the four playoffs berths, with Gujarat Titans and Chennai Super Kings being the frontrunners to secure a spot rather comfortably and Kolkata Knight Riders and Sunrisers Hyderabad just about holding on to their rather remote chances of qualifying.
With 11 matches left to play in the league stage of IPL 2023, there remain over 2,000 possible combinations of results. TOI looks at each of these possibilities to calculate the chances of individual teams making it to the playoffs. As things stand, two teams are almost certain to make the play-offs, one other is a strong favourite to do so and a fourth team has a better than even chance.
TOI’s Shankar Raghuraman does the number crunching to determine how the teams stand as of Saturday, May 13 morning:
1. GT are already certain to finish in one of the top three slots in terms of points. The lowest they can finish is tied third. Their chances of being sole leader are better than even at 53.4%. It is still theoretically possible that they miss out on NRR after finishing in a tie with more than one other team for the third spot but that’s just a 2% chance.
2. CSK are also almost certain of making it to the top four on points with their chances of finishing in that bracket either singly or jointly now at 97.6%.
3. MI are in third place, and their chances of making the top four on points are at a very healthy 85.2%, though that includes scenarios where they’re tied for the fourth spot.
4. In fourth spot after Saturday’s win, LSG are now more likely than not to make the top four with a 57.7% chance of achieving that. Once again that includes scenarios in which they are only joint fourth, some of them with multiple teams.
5. Currently in fifth place, Saturday’s results have hurt RR’s chances of making the top four, which now stand at 40.6%, and even that includes situations in which NRR could come into play.
6. PBKS’ win on Saturday takes them to sixth place, and like RR they now have a 40.6% chance of finishing among the top four on points – singly or jointly.
7. RCB are currently placed seventh and their chances of finishing in the top four have dipped to 23.4% and even this includes situations of teams tied on points for the last spot.
8.KKR are now in eighth spot, and cannot finish better than tied fourth with anywhere between one and five other teams. Their chances of achieving even that are just 7.6%.
9. Ninth placed SRH can, like KKR, at best tie for fourth spot on points and their chances of managing even that are just 4.7%.
10. DC’s shot at the play-offs is now officially over. They have become the first team to be eliminated, following Saturday’s loss to PBKS.
How we calculate these probabilities:
We looked at all 2,048 possible combinations of results with 11 matches remaining. We assumed that for any given match the chances of either side winning are even. We then look at how many of the combinations put each team in one of the top four slots by points. That gives us our probability number. To take a specific example, of the 2,048 possible result combinations, DC does not finish in the top four in any. That translates to a 0% chance of making the top four. We do not take net run rates or No Results (NR) into consideration because predicting those in advance is impossible.

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