Third Covid wave: Mumbai may see 1.36L cases on peak day

MUMBAI: The state may report 60 lakh cases in the event of a third wave and the most cases on peak day are likely to be from the city and Pune, estimates the public health department.
The city reported 91,100 cases at the peak of the second wave on March 11, while on the peak day of the third wave the department expects 1.36 lakh cases. In Pune, 1.25 lakh cases were reported on peak day on March 19, and it is estimated that 1.87 lakh cases will be reported on the peak day of the third wave.
“The most number of cases will be in Pune and Mumbai and the public health department will have to draft a comprehensive action plan to tackle the situation,” a bureaucrat said.
Of the estimated 1.36 lakh patients in the city on peak day, 88,823 are likely to remain under home quarantine, 47,928 are likely to be hospitalised, and 957 might require ICU beds with ventilators.
In Pune, 1.21 lakh persons might remain in home isolation, and 1,314 might require ICU beds with ventilators.
In neighbouring Thane district, the peak day during the second wave threw up 86,732 cases, while the third wave is likely to have a peak day with 1.3 lakh cases and 911 persons requiring ICU beds with ventilators.
In Nagpur, the number of cases is likely to go up from 80,000 on the peak day of the second wave to 1.21 lakh on the peak day of the third wave with 850 persons requiring ICU beds with ventilators.
The city will need 250MT of oxygen, Pune will require 270MT, Thane 187MT, Nagpur 175MT and Nashik 114MT. The bureaucrat said that for ICU beds, including non-ventilator beds, at least 30 litres per minute per bed would be required. For beds outside the ICU, it would be 10 litres per minute per bed.
The public health department has made it clear that no medicine is to be procured or distributed which is not mentioned in the protocol. The state is in the process of procuring medicines and consumables for the third wave and all the medicines will be supplied by the government. At least two months of buffer stock will have to be kept in a district.

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