Iran attacks Pakistan, US rains bombs on Houthis: Will ‘gates of hell’ open in Middle East?

Iran on Tuesday launched airstrikes with missiles and drones in Pakistan targeting what it described as bases for the Sunni militant group Jaish al-Adl, potentially further raising tensions in a Middle East already roiled by Israel’s war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip and US-UK attack on Houthi rebels in Yemen. Pakistan said the strikes killed two children and wounded three others in an assault it described as an “unprovoked violation” of its airspace.
What’s driving the news
The Iranian attack came a day after it launched missile attacks on “spy headquarters” and “terrorist” targets in Syria, and in Iraq’s autonomous Kurdistan region.
The Iran attack involved six drones and rockets, reportedly targeting residences that, according to the militants, sheltered their families. Jaish al-Adl claimed the strike resulted in the tragic loss of two children’s lives and injuries to two women and a teenager.
Established in 2012, Jaish al-Adl has been designated as a terrorist organization by Iran and is responsible for executing multiple assaults on Iranian territory over the past few years.
Footage circulated by the Baluch activist group HalVash, allegedly from the location, depicted the harrowing aftermath, including a structure engulfed in flames and the distressing image of two small, lifeless bodies charred by the attack.
An intelligence dossier from Pakistan detailed the casualties, identifying the deceased children as a 6-year-old girl and an 11-month-old boy. The report further mentioned that three women, ranging in age from 28 to 35, sustained injuries. It also highlighted that Iranian forces launched three to four drones, striking not just a mosque but also other structures, encompassing a residential building.
An unprecedented escalation?
Iran has previously engaged in combat with militants along its borders, yet the deployment of missiles and drones against Pakistan marks an unprecedented escalation. The timing of this attack raises questions, especially considering that it coincided with a meeting between Iran’s Foreign Minister and Pakistan’s caretaker Prime Minister at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, casting uncertainty over Iran’s intentions.
What they’re saying
Pakistan on Wednesday condemned Iran for launching airstrikes that Tehran claimed were targeted bases for a militant Sunni separatist group. Islamabad angrily denounced the attack as a “blatant violation” of its airspace and said it killed two children.
“The responsibility for the consequences will lie squarely with Iran,” Pakistan’s foreign ministry said.
A senior Iranian official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the strikes were a “necessary response” to the “terrorist activities” of Jaish al-Adl, which he accused of being supported by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, Iran’s regional rivals.
Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Washington-based Wilson Center, warned of the seriousness of the strike. “Iran has staged cross-border operations against Pakistan-based militants in the past, but I don’t recall anything on this scale,” he said on X.
“This plunges Pakistan-Iran ties — a delicate relationship even in the best of times — into serious crisis.”
Escalation in the Red Sea: US takes on Houthi rebels
Parallel to the Iran-Pakistan skirmish, the United States and UK have been conducting strikes against Houthi anti-ship ballistic missiles in the Red Sea. The escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict mobilized the Houthis as part of Iran’s “axis of resistance.” The US-UK response came after a Houthi-led attack on a Greek-owned vessel, signaling a significant escalation in the conflict. The Houthis, aligned with Iran, have threatened to expand their attacks, potentially targeting US ships in response to American and British strikes on their positions in Yemen.
Strategic shift
In a strategic shift, the Biden administration is considering reinstating the Houthis on the US list of terrorist organizations, reversing a previous decision by the Trump administration. This move underscores the growing concern over the Houthis’ actions and their impact on regional stability and international trade routes.
Why it matters
The region is already inflamed by the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, which has killed over 2,0000 people and displaced over half a million since October 7, when Hamas fired rockets at Israel in response to its actions in Jerusalem.
The US, which is a key ally of Israel and Saudi Arabia, has been trying to balance its support for its partners with its efforts to de-escalate the tensions in the region. But its continued attack on Houthi rebels have further complicated the regional dynamics.
Now, Iran’s attack on a Sunni militant group in nuclear-armed Pakistan may exacerbate the old faultiness of Sunni-Shia conflict in the region.
What’s next
According to a report in the New York Times, since the onset of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, Iran’s stance in the region has been marked by ambiguity. Internally, Iranian officials have expressed a desire to steer clear of an escalated conflict. Conversely, their public statements have been assertive, emphasizing the strategic significance of their regional proxy forces in maintaining pressure on Israel and its allies.
But attacks on Iraq and Pakistan may signal the Iranian regime’s intent to pursue a more direct and assertive role in the region.
Meanwhile, the US-led attacks on the Houthis, while intended to deter further aggression, could also inadvertently escalate the conflict in the region. The possibility of a ground invasion of Yemen and the potential expansion of the conflict to affect oil and gas transportation in the Persian Gulf are significant concerns.
“It would be incorrect to say that the US-led attacks on the Houthis alone will provoke a large-scale regional conflict in the Middle East, but the continuation of such incidents could open the “gates of hell” and lead to a more intense involvement of the “axis of resistance” in different corners of the region in the fight against Israel and the West,” Murad Sadygzade, an expert of international affairs, wrote in an analysis in Russia Today.
The current situation underscores the complexity of the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape and the delicate balance required to maintain regional stability.
(With inputs from agencies)